Predictions & Forecasts

I don't know if I am any good at predicting the future, so I wanted to formalize the process. This is an effort to track and record a lifetime (!) of recorded predictions about the future, with a focus on transparency and immutability.

About

This System

Inspired by Gwern's prediction system, and efforts like PredictIt or PolyMarket. But of course I want to own my own data and presentation. All predictions are cryptographically signed and commited to github for version history. Showing my failed predictions is an important part of this project.

Sort

Analytics

All-Time Scoreboard

10

Total

66%

Avg Confidence

0

Correct

0

Incorrect

Audit

Commitment Log

All predictions are tracked through git commits, creating an immutable audit trail.

View on GitHub