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Predictions

1/1correct·9pending·$73at stake

Active

ConfStatementDeadline
80%Donald Trump will be inaugurated January 20, 2025 and serve until January 20, 2029 without being removed from office1124d
75%No fully AI-generated song will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart by December 31, 2026373d
70%AI-generated code will account for more than 30% of commits in the top 50 GitHub repositories by December 31, 2026373d
75%Bitcoin will trade below $100,000 USD for at least 7 consecutive days between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 20291469d
60%A federal court will issue findings of fact documenting unlawful deaths at ICE detention facilities between January 2025 and December 2027738d
80%A criminal conviction will explicitly cite deepfake technology as causing damages exceeding $10 million by December 31, 2027738d
55%At least one G20 country will ban the deployment of a specific named AI model by December 31, 2026373d
65%Anthropic will achieve top position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and hold it for 60+ consecutive days by December 31, 20258d
70%Apple will announce consumer AR glasses (not headset) priced under $1,200 by December 31, 2027738d

Resolved

ConfStatementResolved
✓80%0.04Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC mayoral election by a margin greater than 5%Nov 2025