Skip to main content

Predictions

1/1correct·9pending · $29 at stake

Active

Conf Statement Deadline
80% Donald Trump will be inaugurated January 20, 2025 and serve until January 20, 2029 without being removed from office1060d
75% No fully AI-generated song will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart by December 31, 2026309d
70% AI-generated code will account for more than 30% of commits in the top 50 GitHub repositories by December 31, 2026309d
75% Bitcoin will trade below $100,000 USD for at least 7 consecutive days between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 20291405d
60% A federal court will issue findings of fact documenting unlawful deaths at ICE detention facilities between January 2025 and December 2027674d
80% A criminal conviction will explicitly cite deepfake technology as causing damages exceeding $10 million by December 31, 2027674d
55% At least one G20 country will ban the deployment of a specific named AI model by December 31, 2026309d
65% Anthropic will achieve top position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and hold it for 60+ consecutive days by December 31, 2025Dec 30, 2025
70% Apple will announce consumer AR glasses (not headset) priced under $1,200 by December 31, 2027674d

Resolved

Conf Statement Resolved
✓ 80% 0.04Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC mayoral election by a margin greater than 5%Nov 2025