CORRECT — Bitcoin traded below $100,000 for far longer than 7 consecutive days on multiple occasions, decisively meeting all resolution criteria.

First qualifying streak (Mar 24 – May 7, 2025, ~45 consecutive days): BTC/USD closed below $100,000 from approximately March 24, 2025 ($87,328) through May 7, 2025 ($97,026), recovering above $100K on May 8 at ~$103,076. This alone satisfies the 7-day requirement by a factor of 6x.

Second qualifying streak (Nov 14, 2025 – present, 130+ consecutive days): Bitcoin dropped below $100K on November 14, 2025 ($97,849) after a summer rally that peaked near $123,865 in October 2025. It has not recovered since. Subsequent prices: $84,171 (Nov 22), $88,104 (Dec 19), $93,753 (Jan 18, 2026), $67,489 (Feb 17, 2026), ~$70,237 (Mar 24, 2026).

Current price: ~$70,237 USD as of March 24, 2026, well below the $100K threshold and showing no near-term recovery trend.

Sources:

1. CoinGecko BTC/USD historical daily closing prices (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)
2. CoinMarketCap Bitcoin historical data (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)
3. Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical prices (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/)

Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if Bitcoin trades below $100,000 USD meeting ALL criteria:

1. Price Source: CoinGecko daily closing price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
2. Threshold: Daily closing price below $100,000.00 USD
3. Duration: 7 consecutive calendar days (168 hours minimum)
4. Timeline: Any 7-day period between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2029
5. Verification: Archived CoinGecko data or equivalent major price aggregator

Price Calculation:

• Daily closing price in USD (typically 00:00 UTC)
• If CoinGecko unavailable, fallback to CoinMarketCap or major exchange consensus
• Brief intraday wicks below $100k don't count - must be sustained closing prices
• All 7 days must have closes <$100,000 (not just low touches)

Edge Cases:

• Market halts or exchange outages don't reset the counter if price remains below
• Fork events: follows the "Bitcoin" ticker that maintains majority hash rate
• If multiple "Bitcoin" chains exist, follows the one trading as BTC on major exchanges

Evidence and Reasoning

Historical Volatility Patterns:

• Bitcoin has experienced 80%+ drawdowns multiple times (2018: $20k→$3k, 2022: $69k→$15k)
• Cyclical boom-bust pattern roughly aligned with halving cycles
• Previous bull markets followed by extended bear markets lasting 1-2 years
• Current price levels ($100k+) represent 300%+ gains from 2023 lows

Contrarian Factors:

• Growing institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries)
• Increasing regulatory clarity in some jurisdictions
• Network effects and first-mover advantages
• Fixed supply cap becoming more relevant as adoption grows
• Potential for major geopolitical events driving safe-haven demand