Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if Bitcoin trades below $100,000 USD meeting ALL criteria:

1. Price Source: CoinGecko daily closing price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
2. Threshold: Daily closing price below $100,000.00 USD
3. Duration: 7 consecutive calendar days (168 hours minimum)
4. Timeline: Any 7-day period between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2029
5. Verification: Archived CoinGecko data or equivalent major price aggregator

Price Calculation:

• Daily closing price in USD (typically 00:00 UTC)
• If CoinGecko unavailable, fallback to CoinMarketCap or major exchange consensus
• Brief intraday wicks below $100k don't count - must be sustained closing prices
• All 7 days must have closes <$100,000 (not just low touches)

Edge Cases:

• Market halts or exchange outages don't reset the counter if price remains below
• Fork events: follows the "Bitcoin" ticker that maintains majority hash rate
• If multiple "Bitcoin" chains exist, follows the one trading as BTC on major exchanges

Evidence and Reasoning

Historical Volatility Patterns:

• Bitcoin has experienced 80%+ drawdowns multiple times (2018: $20k→$3k, 2022: $69k→$15k)
• Cyclical boom-bust pattern roughly aligned with halving cycles
• Previous bull markets followed by extended bear markets lasting 1-2 years
• Current price levels ($100k+) represent 300%+ gains from 2023 lows

Contrarian Factors:

• Growing institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries)
• Increasing regulatory clarity in some jurisdictions
• Network effects and first-mover advantages
• Fixed supply cap becoming more relevant as adoption grows
• Potential for major geopolitical events driving safe-haven demand