Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if a G20 member country officially bans a specific AI model meeting ALL criteria:

1. Government Action: Official law, regulation, executive order, or equivalent government decree
2. G20 Member: Must be enacted by one of the 20 G20 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, UK, USA, EU)
3. Specific Model: Must name a specific AI model or version (e.g., "GPT-4", "Claude-3", "Gemini Pro") - generic capability bans don't count
4. Deployment Ban: Must prohibit deployment, operation, or use (not just training or development)
5. Timeline: Action must be enacted by December 31, 2026
6. Enforceability: Must be legally binding, not just recommendations or guidelines

Edge Cases:

• Temporary emergency bans count if legally binding
• Regional/state bans within federal countries count if they have jurisdiction
• Bans of specific model versions (e.g., "GPT-4 Turbo") count
• Conditional bans (e.g., "unless safety requirements met") count as bans
• EU-wide bans count as EU being the G20 member

Exclusions:

• General capability-based restrictions (e.g., "models above X parameters")
• Industry-specific restrictions without model names
• Content moderation requirements that don't ban the model itself
• Bans on model training/development only (must affect deployment)