Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if JD Vance does not receive the GOP presidential nomination:

1. Nominee: The official Republican Party nominee for President as determined at the 2028 Republican National Convention
2. Convention Vote: Based on delegate vote at the convention (not polls, endorsements, or primary wins alone)
3. Identity: James David Vance, currently serving as Vice President of the United States
4. Timeline: Determined at the 2028 RNC (expected summer 2028)

Resolution:

• If someone other than Vance is nominated → resolves TRUE (prediction correct)
• If Vance is nominated → resolves FALSE (prediction incorrect)
• If the Republican Party does not hold a convention or nominate a presidential candidate → prediction void

Edge Cases:

• If Vance wins the nomination but later withdraws and is replaced, the prediction still resolves FALSE (he received the nomination)
• If Vance runs but loses the primary → resolves TRUE
• If Vance chooses not to run → resolves TRUE
• If Trump attempts to run for a constitutionally prohibited third term and the party fractures, resolution based on whatever the official RNC recognizes as its nominee

Evidence and Reasoning

Why Vance Likely Doesn't Get the Nomination (80%):

• Vice Presidents have a poor track record winning their party's nomination in contested primaries (Gore 2000 is the recent exception, and he was a two-term VP with broad party support)
• Vance's approval ratings have been persistently low, even among Republican voters
• The MAGA movement is personality-driven around Trump — the loyalty doesn't automatically transfer to his VP
• GOP internal factions (DeSantis wing, Haley wing, populist wing) have incentive to challenge rather than defer
• Trump's governing style creates enemies within the party who may coalesce against his chosen successor
• Vance's Senate career was brief and his political network is thin compared to governors and longer-serving politicians who will run
• The "weird" branding from 2024 stuck and damaged his personal brand beyond MAGA base

Why 80% Not Higher:

• Incumbent VPs do have structural advantages (name recognition, fundraising network, presidential endorsement)
• Trump's endorsement carries enormous weight in GOP primaries
• If the Trump administration is perceived as successful by GOP voters, Vance benefits from continuity argument
• The field may be fractured enough that Vance wins plurality
• 20% accounts for the scenario where Vance consolidates MAGA base and wins a crowded primary