Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if a mass coordinated work stoppage occurs meeting ALL criteria:

1. Scale: 500,000 or more workers participate (not just pledge or RSVP — actual work stoppage)
2. Coordination: Must be a single coordinated event or call to action (not unrelated simultaneous strikes)
3. Multi-Industry: Workers from at least 3 distinct industries (e.g., education + healthcare + transportation, not just multiple school districts)
4. Work Stoppage: Actual cessation of work — not just rallies, marches, or protests outside work hours
5. Geographic Scope: Multiple US states (not a single-city action)
6. Duration: At least one full work day (or equivalent shift)
7. Timeline: Occurs before January 20, 2029

Measurement:

• BLS work stoppage data is the gold standard but only tracks 1,000+ worker stoppages
• Major news organization estimates (AP, Reuters, NYT, WSJ) accepted
• AFL-CIO or major labor federation participation counts accepted
• Worker self-reporting through strike tracking platforms accepted if corroborated

What Counts:

• Traditional union-authorized strikes across sectors
• Wildcat strikes if coordinated and multi-industry
• "Sick-out" or work-to-rule actions if coordinated and reaching scale threshold
• May Day or politically-motivated general strikes
• Mixed actions where some workers strike and others walk out without union authorization

What Doesn't Count:

• A single large industry strike (e.g., all teachers) without cross-industry coordination
• Protests, marches, or rallies that don't involve actual work stoppage
• Social media "general strike" calls that don't result in measurable work cessation
• Consumer boycotts without worker participation

Evidence and Reasoning

Organizing Infrastructure Exists (March 2026):

• generalstrikeus.com providing coordination infrastructure and "strike cards"
• May 1, 2026 organizing actively underway with multi-city coordination
• Labor Notes published "Maybe a General Strike Isn't So Impossible Now" (Dec 2025)
• International Socialist Alliance calling for nationwide general strike on May 1
• Sources: Labor Notes (https://labornotes.org/2025/12/maybe-general-strike-isnt-so-impossible-now), Waging Nonviolence (https://wagingnonviolence.org/2025/04/what-would-general-strike-in-the-us-look-like/), generalstrikeus.com

Political Conditions Favoring Action:

• Trump administration attacks on federal workers' collective bargaining rights
• Operation Metro Surge and ICE enforcement generating broad public anger
• Killing of Alex Pretti by ICE agents (Jan 2026) catalyzing protest energy
• Federal workforce demoralization and DOGE-driven layoffs
• Growing perception that conventional political channels are insufficient

Historical Barriers (Why 50%, Not Higher):

• The last US general strike was Oakland, 1946 — 80 years ago
• Taft-Hartley Act (1947) makes political strikes by unions legally precarious
• US labor union membership at historic lows (~10% of workforce)
• "General strike" calls on social media have repeatedly failed to materialize
• American workers face acute financial precarity — missing a day's pay is a real cost
• Employer retaliation is legal in many states for non-union workers

Why 50% (Not Lower):

• Political conditions are more extreme than any period since the 1960s
• The organizing infrastructure is more sophisticated than previous failed calls
• Social media enables rapid coordination that didn't exist for previous attempts
• Cross-sector solidarity (teachers + nurses + transit + tech) has been building since 2018 strike wave
• 3 years is a long window — conditions may escalate further
• A single catalyzing event (another killing, mass deportation, constitutional crisis) could tip the balance