70%
Apple will announce consumer AR glasses (not headset) priced under $1,200 by December 31, 2027
· Dec 31, 2027
Evidence
Resolution Criteria
This prediction resolves TRUE if Apple makes an official announcement by December 31, 2027 of consumer AR glasses meeting ALL of the following criteria:
- Official Announcement: Must be announced through official Apple channels (keynote, press release, Apple.com)
- Form Factor: Must be glasses form factor, NOT a bulky headset like Vision Pro
- Consumer Product: Must announce consumer availability, not just developer kits or enterprise versions
- Price Point: MSRP must be under $1,200 USD at time of announcement
- Timeline: Announcement must occur by December 31, 2027
Edge Cases:
- If multiple SKUs are announced, the cheapest consumer model must be under $1,200
- Pre-orders or "coming soon" announcements count as long as price is specified
- Currency fluctuations: USD price at time of announcement is what matters
Evidence and Reasoning
Supporting Evidence:
- Ming-Chi Kuo analyst reports indicate Apple smart glasses mass production starting Q2 2027
- Meta Ray-Ban glasses selling "as fast as produced" at $299, proving market demand
- Apple's Vision Pro at $3,499 creates room for a mid-tier AR product
- Industry trend toward lighter, more affordable AR devices
- Apple's historical pattern of premium pricing (2-3x competitors) suggests $600-900 realistic range