60%
A federal court will issue findings of fact documenting unlawful deaths at ICE detention facilities between January 2025 and December 2027
· Dec 31, 2027
Evidence
Resolution Criteria
This prediction resolves TRUE if a federal court issues findings of fact meeting ALL criteria:
- Federal Court: US District Court, Circuit Court of Appeals, or Supreme Court
- Official Finding: Published ruling, order, or judgment with findings of fact (not just allegations or motions)
- Unlawful Deaths: Court explicitly finds that unlawful killings or deaths occurred due to negligence/misconduct
- ICE Facilities: Deaths occurred at ICE-operated or ICE-contracted detention facilities
- Timeline: Deaths occurred between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2027
- Public Record: Court documents available through PACER, court websites, or legal databases
Qualifying Findings:
- Medical negligence resulting in preventable deaths
- Use of excessive force leading to death
- Failure to provide adequate care, safety, or supervision
- Deliberate indifference to serious medical needs
- Unsafe conditions leading to fatalities
Documentation Requirements:
- Court must make factual findings, not just legal conclusions
- Specific facility and incident details in court record
- Clear causal connection between ICE custody and unlawful death
Evidence and Reasoning
Historical Pattern:
- 40+ deaths in ICE custody reported between 2017-2020
- Previous court findings of inadequate medical care in ICE facilities
- Pattern of delayed or denied medical treatment documented by advocates
- Multiple ongoing lawsuits challenging ICE detention conditions
Systemic Issues:
- Private contractor facilities with profit incentives to minimize costs
- Inadequate medical staffing at many ICE facilities
- Limited oversight and transparency in detention operations
- Vulnerable population with existing health conditions