Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if an Anthropic model achieves and maintains the #1 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard meeting ALL criteria:

1. Platform: LMSYS Chatbot Arena official overall leaderboard (chatbot.lmsys.org)
2. Position: #1 ranking (not tied for first)
3. Model: Any Anthropic model (Claude series)
4. Duration: Must hold #1 position for 60 consecutive days minimum
5. Verification: Position confirmed through archived leaderboard data (Wayback Machine, screenshots, etc.)

Edge Cases:

• If leaderboard methodology changes significantly, prediction becomes void
• Temporary outages/maintenance don't reset the counter if position is maintained
• Multiple Anthropic models can't combine - must be single model holding position
• ELO score ties count as shared #1, which doesn't satisfy this prediction