CORRECT - Prediction verified with 8.8 percentage point margin.

Final Results (90% counted): Mamdani 50.4%, Cuomo 41.6%, Sliwa 7.1% - margin of 8.8pp exceeds required 5pp threshold. Associated Press called race at 9:34 PM ET, less than 40 minutes after polls closed. Over 2 million ballots cast, highest mayoral turnout since 1969 per NYC Board of Elections.

Historical Significance: Mamdani becomes NYC's 111th mayor, first Muslim and first South Asian descent mayor, and at 34 the youngest in past 100 years. Received 1,036,000+ votes.

Sources:

1. Associated Press via NPR: "Zohran Mamdani wins NYC mayoral race" (https://www.npr.org/2025/11/04/nx-s1-5597788/election-results-zohran-mamdani-new-york-city-mayor)
2. THE CITY: "How Mamdani Won, By the Numbers" (https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/11/06/how-mamdani-won-map/)
3. NPR: "Zohran Mamdani will be the next mayor of New York City" (https://www.npr.org/2025/11/04/nx-s1-5598399/zohran-mamdani-will-be-the-next-mayor-of-new-york-city)

Resolution Criteria

This prediction resolves TRUE if Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC mayoral election by >5% margin:

1. Official Results: NYC Board of Elections certified final results
2. Election Type: General election in November 2025 (not primary)
3. Victory Required: Mamdani must finish in 1st place (most votes)
4. Margin Requirement: Victory margin >5.0 percentage points over 2nd place candidate
5. Candidate Verification: Must be the Zohran Mamdani currently serving in NY State Assembly (District 36)

Margin Calculation:

• (Mamdani's percentage) - (2nd place candidate's percentage) > 5.0%
• Based on first-choice votes if ranked choice voting is used
• All ballot lines combined if candidates appear on multiple
• Includes all valid ballots (in-person, absentee, provisional)

Edge Cases:

• If Mamdani withdraws before general election, prediction resolves FALSE
• If election is postponed beyond 2025, prediction becomes void
• Recount results count if they change the certified outcome
• If he wins via ranked choice after redistribution, margin calculated on final round

Evidence and Reasoning

Mamdani's Political Position:

• Progressive NY State Assembly member representing Queens District 36
• Member of Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)
• Strong advocate for housing rights, worker protections, and social justice
• Vocal critic of moderate Democratic establishment
• Built name recognition through high-profile policy positions

NYC Electoral Context:

• Ranked choice voting may benefit progressive candidates
• Growing progressive movement in NYC (AOC, DSA successes)
• Historical NYC mayoral races often competitive with multiple viable candidates

Progressive Electoral Performance:

• DSA candidates have won multiple NYC races in recent cycles
• Progressive ballot initiatives often perform well in NYC
• Working Families Party has achieved >5% in previous mayoral races
• Left-wing candidates tend to outperform in high-turnout elections