Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC mayoral election by a margin greater than 5%
Confidence 80%
Deadline NOV 30, 2025
Created JAN 20, 2025
Categories politics, nyc, elections, progressive
Intellectual exercise, not rigorous forecast
Evidence
Update History
NOV 01, 2025 · 25% → 80%
Adams' corruption charges and Mamdani's ground game momentum make victory much more likely than initially predicted. Recent campaign developments and progressive voter energy suggest strong performance.