{"$schema":"https://ejfox.com/schema/page-twin@1.json","kind":"prediction","url":"https://ejfox.com/predictions/bitcoin-sub-100k-2029","json_url":"https://ejfox.com/predictions/bitcoin-sub-100k-2029.json","generator":"ejfox.com/json-twin@1","data":{"id":"bitcoin-sub-100k-2029","slug":"bitcoin-sub-100k-2029","statement":"Bitcoin will trade below $100,000 USD for at least 7 consecutive days between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2029","confidence":75,"deadline":"2029-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","status":"correct","resolved":true,"resolved_date":"2026-03-24T00:00:00.000Z","evidence":"# Resolution Criteria\n\nThis prediction resolves **TRUE** if Bitcoin trades below $100,000 USD meeting ALL criteria:\n\n1. **Price Source**: CoinGecko daily closing price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD)\n2. **Threshold**: Daily closing price below $100,000.00 USD\n3. **Duration**: 7 consecutive calendar days (168 hours minimum)\n4. **Timeline**: Any 7-day period between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2029\n5. **Verification**: Archived CoinGecko data or equivalent major price aggregator\n\n**Price Calculation**:\n\n- Daily closing price in USD (typically 00:00 UTC)\n- If CoinGecko unavailable, fallback to CoinMarketCap or major exchange consensus\n- Brief intraday wicks below $100k don't count - must be sustained closing prices\n- All 7 days must have closes <$100,000 (not just low touches)\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n\n- Market halts or exchange outages don't reset the counter if price remains below\n- Fork events: follows the \"Bitcoin\" ticker that maintains majority hash rate\n- If multiple \"Bitcoin\" chains exist, follows the one trading as BTC on major exchanges\n\n# Evidence and Reasoning\n\n**Historical Volatility Patterns**:\n\n- Bitcoin has experienced 80%+ drawdowns multiple times (2018: $20k→$3k, 2022: $69k→$15k)\n- Cyclical boom-bust pattern roughly aligned with halving cycles\n- Previous bull markets followed by extended bear markets lasting 1-2 years\n- Current price levels ($100k+) represent 300%+ gains from 2023 lows\n\n**Contrarian Factors**:\n\n- Growing institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries)\n- Increasing regulatory clarity in some jurisdictions\n- Network effects and first-mover advantages\n- Fixed supply cap becoming more relevant as adoption grows\n- Potential for major geopolitical events driving safe-haven demand","evidenceHtml":"

Resolution Criteria

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This prediction resolves TRUE if Bitcoin trades below $100,000 USD meeting ALL criteria:

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    \n
  1. Price Source: CoinGecko daily closing price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
    2. \n
  2. Threshold: Daily closing price below $100,000.00 USD
    3. \n
  3. Duration: 7 consecutive calendar days (168 hours minimum)
    4. \n
  4. Timeline: Any 7-day period between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2029
    5. \n
  5. Verification: Archived CoinGecko data or equivalent major price aggregator
    6. \n
\n

Price Calculation:

\n\n

Edge Cases:

\n\n

Evidence and Reasoning

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Historical Volatility Patterns:

\n\n

Contrarian Factors:

\n","resolution":"**CORRECT** — Bitcoin traded below $100,000 for far longer than 7 consecutive days on multiple occasions, decisively meeting all resolution criteria.\n\n**First qualifying streak (Mar 24 – May 7, 2025, ~45 consecutive days)**: BTC/USD closed below $100,000 from approximately March 24, 2025 ($87,328) through May 7, 2025 ($97,026), recovering above $100K on May 8 at ~$103,076. This alone satisfies the 7-day requirement by a factor of 6x.\n\n**Second qualifying streak (Nov 14, 2025 – present, 130+ consecutive days)**: Bitcoin dropped below $100K on November 14, 2025 ($97,849) after a summer rally that peaked near $123,865 in October 2025. It has not recovered since. Subsequent prices: $84,171 (Nov 22), $88,104 (Dec 19), $93,753 (Jan 18, 2026), $67,489 (Feb 17, 2026), ~$70,237 (Mar 24, 2026).\n\n**Current price**: ~$70,237 USD as of March 24, 2026, well below the $100K threshold and showing no near-term recovery trend.\n\n**Sources**:\n1. CoinGecko BTC/USD historical daily closing prices (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)\n2. CoinMarketCap Bitcoin historical data (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)\n3. Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical prices (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/)","resolutionHtml":"

CORRECT — Bitcoin traded below $100,000 for far longer than 7 consecutive days on multiple occasions, decisively meeting all resolution criteria.

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First qualifying streak (Mar 24 – May 7, 2025, ~45 consecutive days): BTC/USD closed below $100,000 from approximately March 24, 2025 ($87,328) through May 7, 2025 ($97,026), recovering above $100K on May 8 at ~$103,076. This alone satisfies the 7-day requirement by a factor of 6x.

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Second qualifying streak (Nov 14, 2025 – present, 130+ consecutive days): Bitcoin dropped below $100K on November 14, 2025 ($97,849) after a summer rally that peaked near $123,865 in October 2025. It has not recovered since. Subsequent prices: $84,171 (Nov 22), $88,104 (Dec 19), $93,753 (Jan 18, 2026), $67,489 (Feb 17, 2026), ~$70,237 (Mar 24, 2026).

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Current price: ~$70,237 USD as of March 24, 2026, well below the $100K threshold and showing no near-term recovery trend.

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Sources:

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    \n
  1. CoinGecko BTC/USD historical daily closing prices (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)
    2. \n
  2. CoinMarketCap Bitcoin historical data (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)
    3. \n
  3. Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical prices (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/)
    4. \n
","updates":[],"relatedPredictions":[]},"_links":{"self":"https://ejfox.com/predictions/bitcoin-sub-100k-2029.json","html":"https://ejfox.com/predictions/bitcoin-sub-100k-2029","index":"/predictions.json"}}